2024 presidential forecast

Polls show Biden with a clear lead over Trump

According to a recent poll by FiveThirtyEight, Biden has a 53% chance of winning the national popular vote, while Trump has a 47% chance. The poll also found that Biden has a 65% chance of winning the electoral college, while Trump has a 35% chance.

These results are consistent with other recent polls, which have also shown Biden with a lead over Trump. For example, a poll by CNN found that Biden has a 52% chance of winning the popular vote, while Trump has a 48% chance. A poll by ABC News/Washington Post found that Biden has a 53% chance of winning the popular vote, while Trump has a 47% chance.

Key factors driving Biden's lead

Several factors are contributing to Biden's lead over Trump. These factors include:

• Biden's strong support among African American voters
• Biden's lead among women voters
• Biden's lead among college-educated voters

Trump's lead among white male voters is not enough to overcome Biden's lead among other demographic groups.

What Trump can do to close the gap

Trump needs to do several things to close the gap with Biden. These things include:

• Winning back some of the voters who have defected to Biden
• Expanding his base of support among white male voters
• Improving his favorability ratings among African American, women, and college-educated voters

Whether Trump can do these things and close the gap with Biden remains to be seen.